So, Harry. Okay. They come out. It's not a remote rally over the phone. Okay. Why are many Republicans breathing a sigh of relief that Trump will not go to Georgia for Walker? Yeah, I mean, just look at the favourable rating that Donald Trump has in the state of Georgia, right?
Its 40% unfavourable rating is well above 50%. Compare that to someone like Brian Kemp, basically Trump's chief rival in the state of Georgia, because Brian Kemp dared to say that the 2020 election was legitimate, which obviously it was.
Brian Kemp, a far more popular Republican in the state of Georgia, basically the reverse mirror with a favourable rating in the unfavourable rating in the low forty s. So this is why Republicans are expressing relief, is because Donald Trump, simply put, not a popular guy injured.
You don't want to be tied to Donald Trump if you're a Republican. Okay, so now let's look at the numbers of where it was earlier this month. Right? Because you needed 51 to not have a runoff. So Senator Warnock did get more votes than Walker.
Not enough. More, but he got more, 380 more. That's a lot. That's a lot more than Trump lost the state by kemp beat his Democratic opponent, though, by nearly 3000 votes. Okay. That's a gap. That is so what does that mean?
Yeah, what does it mean? Well, essentially what Brian Kemp was able to do was reach out to the centre of the electorate, was able to win barely among independents. You look, of course, Rafael Warnock won independence easily in his Senate bid.
You go back to 2020. What happened? Joe Biden won independence rather easily, won by close to ten points in the state of Georgia. If you're a Democrat, because they're more self identified Republicans than Democrats, you need to win independence.
If you're a Republican and you're able to keep the loss among independence to a minimum or win in the case that Brian Kempton. You're able to, in fact win in the state of Georgia? That's what Raphael warnock.
Excuse me. That's what Hero Walker wants. Alright. Now, when you think of independence, you obviously don't think of Trump right there. I would think not, no. Okay, so. When you lay out the maths, it would seem that this all makes sense, but is there any way that Trump's absence could actually hurt Walker?
Yeah, you know, we were talking in the break, right? This sort of catch 22 where you want persuasion, right? You want to win those independents at the same time you want to hold on to your base. And runoffs are not just about persuasion.
They're about turnout. And what we saw in 2021, when we had that runoff for the Senate races, we saw that the Republican turnout as a percentage of that 2020 turnout had dropped. Dropped more so in the Republican districts than in the Democratic district.
So the question is, with Trump, with him staying on the sideline, will that in fact decrease Republican enthusiasm? Republicans don't want to see that. They want the persuasion, but they also want to turn out.
I don't know if they can have it both ways, though, Aaron.